예측 기록 · 노벨상

적중률을 게시하지 않는다. 현재 자료는 각 발표 전에 고정한 완전한 기록이 아니다. 비교에는 기준 시각, 원본 목록, 명확한 평가 규칙이 필요하다.

출처 날짜
2026-10-06

예측과 공식 결과 비교

발표 전 기록과 최종 결과를 분리해 보존합니다. 과거 적중률에는 고정 기준 시점과 명시된 분모가 필요합니다.

노벨상	예측 기록	공식 결과
노벨 생리학·의학상	발표 전에 보존한 기록 없음	Karl Deisseroth · Peter Hegemann · Georg Nagel
노벨 물리학상	발표 전에 보존한 기록 없음	Francis Halzen
노벨 화학상	발표 전에 보존됨2026-10-06T12:21:59.898356+00:00 예측 기록 David L. Allara · Ralph G. Nuzzo · Jacob Sagiv · Clarivate Citation Laureates Harry B. Gray · Jay R. Winkler · Clarivate Citation Laureates David R. Liu · Clarivate Citation Laureates	발표 대기
노벨 문학상	발표 전에 보존됨2026-10-06T10:19:00.352657+00:00 예측 기록 Haruki Murakami · Kalshi · 0.0600 · 0–1 Margaret Atwood · Kalshi · 0.1100 · 0–1 Can Xue · Kalshi · 0.1200 · 0–1 Amitav Ghosh · Kalshi · 0.1800 · 0–1 Mircea Cărtărescu · Kalshi · 0.4100 · 0–1 Gerald Murnane · Kalshi · 0.1400 · 0–1 Thomas Pynchon · Kalshi · 0.1000 · 0–1 Salman Rushdie · Kalshi · 0.0800 · 0–1 Anne Carson · Kalshi · 0.2000 · 0–1 César Aira · Kalshi · 0.2000 · 0–1	발표 대기
노벨 평화상	발표 전에 보존됨2026-10-06T10:19:00.756913+00:00 예측 기록 Donald Trump · Polymarket · 0.0070 · 0–1 Pope Leo XIV · Polymarket · 0.0160 · 0–1 Yulia Navalnaya · Polymarket · 0.0470 · 0–1 Julian Assange · Polymarket · 0.0070 · 0–1 Greta Thunberg · Polymarket · 0.0070 · 0–1 Elon Musk · Polymarket · 0.0010 · 0–1 UNRWA · Polymarket · 0.0270 · 0–1 International Court of Justice · Polymarket · 0.0740 · 0–1 António Guterres · Polymarket · 0.0090 · 0–1 Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Polymarket · 0.0100 · 0–1 Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani · Polymarket · 0.0130 · 0–1 Vladimir Putin · Polymarket · 0.0010 · 0–1 Khaled Mashal · Polymarket · 0.0010 · 0–1 Benjamin Netanyahu · Polymarket · 0.0010 · 0–1 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan · Polymarket · 0.0010 · 0–1 Xi Jinping · Polymarket · 0.0020 · 0–1 Ahmed al-Sharaa · Polymarket · 0.0030 · 0–1 Charlie Kirk · Polymarket · 0.0010 · 0–1 Mohammed bin Salman · Polymarket · 0.0010 · 0–1 Narendra Modi · Polymarket · 0.0010 · 0–1 Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms · Polymarket · 0.1490 · 0–1 Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya · Polymarket · 0.0110 · 0–1 Chow Hang-tung · Polymarket · 0.0260 · 0–1 Committee to Protect Journalists · Polymarket · 0.0400 · 0–1 Reporters Without Borders · Polymarket · 0.0180 · 0–1 UNHCR · Polymarket · 0.0210 · 0–1 ICRC · Polymarket · 0.0110 · 0–1 Hussam Abu Safiya · Polymarket · 0.0160 · 0–1 World Central Kitchen · Polymarket · 0.0130 · 0–1 Save the Children · Polymarket · 0.0790 · 0–1 Sara Al-Saqqa · Polymarket · 0.0290 · 0–1 Mark Carney · Polymarket · 0.0190 · 0–1 Mykola Kuleba · Polymarket · 0.1000 · 0–1 International Criminal Court · Polymarket · 0.0400 · 0–1 Doctors Without Borders · Polymarket · 0.0100 · 0–1 International Space Station · Polymarket · 0.0300 · 0–1 Parents Circle – Families Forum · Polymarket · 0.0100 · 0–1 International Association of Judges · Polymarket · 0.0100 · 0–1 International Peace Research Association · Polymarket · 0.0100 · 0–1 Yad Vashem · Polymarket · 0.0020 · 0–1 Donald Trump · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Francesca Albanese · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Narges Mohammadi · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 European Union · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Elon Musk · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Doctors Without Borders · Kalshi · 0.0300 · 0–1 International Court of Justice (ICJ) · Kalshi · 0.0400 · 0–1 Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms · Kalshi · 0.1500 · 0–1 Minneapolis · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Dario Amodei · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Sam Altman · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1 Mark Carney · Kalshi · 0.0260 · 0–1 Sara Al-Saqqa · Kalshi · 0.0180 · 0–1 Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani · Kalshi · 0.0050 · 0–1 Vanessa Nakate · Kalshi · 0.0080 · 0–1 International Space Station / ISS partnership · Kalshi · 0.0500 · 0–1 Chow Hang-tung · Kalshi · 0.0090 · 0–1 Parents Circle – Families Forum · Kalshi · 0.0030 · 0–1 International Association of Judges (IAJ) · Kalshi · 0.0140 · 0–1 World Trade Organization · Kalshi · 0.0040 · 0–1 International Peace Research Association (IPRA) · Kalshi · 0.0040 · 0–1 Matt Meyer · Kalshi · 0.0030 · 0–1 Svalbard Global Seed Vault · Kalshi · 0.0060 · 0–1 Yad Vashem · Kalshi · 0.0070 · 0–1 Reporters Without Borders (RSF) · Kalshi · 0.0150 · 0–1 International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) · Kalshi · 0.0090 · 0–1 Concordis International · Kalshi · 0.0020 · 0–1 Greta Thunberg · Kalshi · 0.0680 · 0–1 Campaign to Stop Killer Robots · Kalshi · 0.0100 · 0–1	발표 대기
노벨 경제학상	발표 전에 보존됨2026-10-06T12:21:59.898356+00:00 예측 기록 Susan C. Athey · Hal R. Varian · Clarivate Citation Laureates Michael D. Woodford · Clarivate Citation Laureates Sidney G. Winter · Clarivate Citation Laureates	발표 대기

적중률을 게시하지 않는다. 현재 자료는 각 발표 전에 고정한 완전한 기록이 아니다. 비교에는 기준 시각, 원본 목록, 명확한 평가 규칙이 필요하다.

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