Prize Observer

Nobel Prize in Economics 2026: Predictions and Sources

Explore dated expert views and available public forecasts for the 2026 Economics award, with source distinctions, announcement time and results after release.

Source date
Awaiting announcement

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The economics award is formally the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. We use the familiar shorter name in navigation.

Research and work

Digital markets · monetary policy · innovation and growth

Source comparison

Person or organizationSource typeContract priceSources
Susan C. Athey · Hal R. VarianDigital marketsResearch recognition—Clarivate
Michael D. Woodfordmonetary policyResearch recognition—Clarivate
Sidney G. Winterinnovation and growthResearch recognition—Clarivate
No record is different from a zero probability. We do not create a prediction record when evidence is missing.

These are dated public records. Follow the original source for its latest information.

Current nomination records are confidential for 50 years. An expert recommendation or a market listing does not establish an official nomination.

Citation Laureates identifies influential research. Recognition is not a prediction of a Nobel winner in a particular year.

Field guide

Start with the awarding body and selection rules, then explore contributions and verified past recipients. The current-year discussion is kept on its own annual page.

Nobel Prize in Economics

Predictions vs official results

Records taken before the announcement remain separate from the final result. Historical accuracy requires a stated cutoff and a visible denominator.

Award fieldsPrediction recordOfficial result
Nobel Prize in EconomicsPreserved before the announcement
Prediction record
Awaiting announcement

Related reading

work and contributions

Susan C. Athey

An economist who studies digital markets, market design and causal inference. Her research connects economic theory with data, online platforms and the evaluation of interventions.

work and contributions

Hal R. Varian

An economist known for information economics and the digital economy. His work examines how information goods, pricing and network effects shape markets.

work and contributions

Michael D. Woodford

An economist whose work emphasizes expectations and interest-rate policy. His research helped shape modern analysis of monetary policy and central-bank communication.

research

Digital-market economics

Digital-market economics studies information goods, platforms, pricing and network effects. Data and market design can change how participants interact. A popular platform is not by itself proof of a competitive market or of benefits for every participant.

research

Monetary policy

Monetary policy studies how central-bank decisions, interest rates and expectations influence the economy. Communication can affect expectations as well as current rates. A theoretical model is not a reliable standalone forecast of the next rate decision.

research

Innovation and economic growth

Research on innovation and growth asks how knowledge, incentives and organizations change productivity over time. Evolutionary approaches also examine routines and adaptation. An influential theory is distinct from an identified causal effect in a particular country or firm.